WP 541 Provincial migration in China. Preliminary insights from the 2010 population census / by A.M. Fischer.
ISS Working Paper by Andrew M. Fischer
Abstract
In anticipation of the forthcoming release of the 2010 national population census of China, this paper compares the limited population data that have been released so far with annual data on natural population increase since the 2000 census in order to construct a rough but robust measure of net migration for each province in China between these two censuses.
The results emphasize the extent of net out-migration from much of interior and western China as well as the degree to which rapid population growth in five coastal growth poles has been due to net in-migration. In total, 15 out of 31 provinces experienced net population outflows between the two censuses according to this measure, versus only six that experienced negative population growth, leaving nine provinces that registered positive population growth at the same time as net out-migration. Three exceptions to the western pattern of net outflows were the Tibet Autonomous Region, Xinjiang and Ningxia, which had the highest average natural population increase rates in China and also continued to experience moderate net in-migration.
Overall, the sheer extent and speed of these flows, which have been mostly contained within national borders, sheds light on the enormity of the developmental challenges facing the government in this context, as well as the demographic pressures placed on the coastal growth poles absorbing most of the net flows. Moreover, there appears to be little association between rates of net migration and provincial rates of economic growth or even provincial levels of per capita GDP during this period, except in the broadest interregional sense that the three coastal province-level entities exhibiting the strongest rates of net in-migration – Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin – were by far the most affluent in China.
Keywords
China, population, provincial migration, natural population increase, census.
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About the author
| Andrew Fischer is Senior Lecturer of Population and Social Policy and Convenor of the Social Policy for Development Major at ISS. A development economist by training and an interdisciplinary social scientist by conviction, he has been involved in studying, researching or working in development studies or in developing countries for over 25 years and on China’s regional development strategies in the Tibetan areas of Western China for more than ten years. His research generally deals with marginalized and/or disadvantaged peoples, focusing on how poverty and inequality are affected by patterns of population change, economic growth, social policy, aid, trade and finance. He has published widely on subjects related to China’s development and on the international development agenda more generally, particularly with respect to poverty, social exclusion, and social policy. He earned a PhD in Development Studies from the London School of Economics. |
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Publication date: Tuesday, 15 May 2012
