Understanding Migration Constraints and Failure along the Eastern Route from the Horn of Africa to the Gulf

The Eastern Route from the Horn of Africa to the Gulf remains one of the world’s busiest migration routes, with over 100,000 people, mostly from Ethiopia, arriving in Yemen annually. Obock in Djibouti and Bossaso in Somalia are key cities of transit along this route, where maritime crossings to the Arabian Peninsula depart. 

The route is also one of the deadliest: between January and September 2025, 890 deaths and disappearances were recorded, with drowning accounting for over a quarter of these tragedies. Efforts to curb irregular movements in Djibouti and Somalia, including arrests of smugglers and deportation of migrants and increased coast guard activity, have made mixed movements riskier, translating into higher smuggler fees and greater dangers for those making the attempt. 

Despite the challenges and risks along the route, the sheer volume of movements suggests a high success rate and indicates the importance of the opportunities offered by this route for people on the move. That said, migration data collection in the Gulf is extremely challenging and little is known at a quantitative level about people’s irregular journeys and experiences from points of arrival in Yemen to places of destination in the Gulf. 

In 2025, MMC and UNHCR set out to generate and collect longitudinal data along this route to understand: 

1. How do people’s experiences and journeys evolve and change along the Eastern Route, particularly once they reach the Gulf? 
2. How do their experiences impact their decision-making and aspirations? 

In her presentation, Ayla Erin Bonfiglio draws upon more than 1,000 baseline surveys collected in Djibouti and Somalia and more than 400 follow-up interviews with the same people on the move three to five months later.