In 'Non-Trade in the MENA Revisited: A gravity model analysis', Libby Leher, Binyam Afewerk Demena and Peter Bergeijk provide a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
Basing their research on literature reviews and applying a statistical analysis, the authors estimated the intra-MENA trade potential that could have been reaped as a consequence of a geopolitically more stable and open Middle East. Their research suggests that a normalization of economic relations across the region could improve trade - amounting to 10% to 54% import‑based and 21% to 48% export‑based - and shape political relations between countries.
They are hopeful that, despite the recent overwhelming impact of military conflict on the economy, trade relations in the medium to long run still hold the potential to promote economic development of Palestine and the MENA region as a whole.
'Non-Trade in the MENA Revisited: A gravity model analysis' is available as open access.
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