What might migration between Africa and Europe look like in 2045?
Migration between Africa and Europe could look dramatically different over the next 20 years as climate vulnerability, artificial intelligence, political instability and economic inequality reshape global mobility patterns, according to a new report from the Making migration and migration policy decisions amidst societal transformations (PACES) project.
The report Migration between Europe and Africa in 2045: How decision making will shape future migration by Ayla Bonfiglio and Simona Vezzoli draws on insights from a migration scenario-building workshop held in November 2025, where experts explored possible futures for migration between Africa and Europe and what policies may be needed to respond to them.
Rather than predicting a single outcome, the workshop focused on building future scenarios to challenge assumptions and encourage more adaptive approaches to migration governance.
How decision making will shape future migration
Snapshot into the scenario-building report
1) Experts identified climate vulnerability, technological advancement and economic competition as major forces likely to shape migration futures
2) Four major uncertainties could redefine migration dynamics: conflict, autocratic governance, access to services and AI’s impact on labour markets
3) The report presents eight future migration scenarios to help policymakers and practitioners prepare for multiple possible futures
4) Researchers and policymakers are urged to move beyond linear migration models and develop more flexible, adaptive migration policies
Participants identified several ‘relative certainties’ expected to shape migration futures, including growing economic competition, climate vulnerability and the rapid rise of surveillance technologies. Discussions also explored major uncertainties with the potential to dramatically reshape migration dynamics from conflict and autocratic governance to unequal access to essential services and AI’s evolving role in labour markets.
These conversations ultimately informed eight migration scenario narratives exploring how political, technological and social shifts could redefine migration between Africa and Europe over the next two decades.
Rather than offering predictions, the report invites policymakers, researchers and practitioners to think differently about migration futures and prepare for a rapidly changing world.
Funding
This project has received funding under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme, grant agreement N 101094279. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
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