What will migration between Africa and Europe look like in 2040?
No one can predict it, but we can prepare for a range of possible futures. That idea brought together researchers, policymakers, business representatives, civil-society actors and migrants living in Europe for a three-day scenario workshop in The Hague, hosted by the PACES project from 19 to 21 November 2025.
Participants came from four sectors: academia, policy and local authorities, business and international organizations and civil society. Each was invited because their work or lived experience touches migration between Africa and Europe, even if migration is not the focus of their daily activities.
Gathering insights
The workshop marked an important step in PACES. Over the past years, the project has generated insights into how people make decisions about staying or migrating and how policymakers make decisions about migration policy. The workshop offered a space to use these insights actively and to think strategically about the future.
The workshop activities involved in-depth discussions of several important factors that could significantly shape our future and alter migration such as resource constraints, including water-based conflicts, the future of work and AI, human rights, development aid, geopolitical alliances, the future of the EU and of governance in African countries.
Among the important insights of the scenario building activities was that the participants envisioned a set of scenarios that put in the centre governance in Africa and a role of AI in altering the global labour market, and another set of scenarios that centred on social service provision in Europe and armed warfare affecting the EU at different levels from small-scale conflicts to global war.
Exploring new futures
Two experienced facilitators, Simona Vezzoli and Ayla Bonfiglio, led the workshop using the Global Migration Futures (GMF) Scenario Methodology developed at the International Migration Institute at the University of Oxford. Both have worked extensively with scenario approaches and the GMF methodology over many years. Simona Vezzoli, a co‑author of the GMF methodology, contributed foundational work that helped shape the approach used during the workshop, while Ayla Bonfiglio brought her long-standing experience applying scenario methods in diverse research and policy contexts.
Participants worked under Chatham House rules, creating a safe environment to share observations and explore ideas that might challenge familiar ways of thinking. They examined signals of social, economic, political, technological, and environmental change. They considered how these developments could influence people’s decisions to migrate or stay and how policies might respond.
The goal was not to predict migration flows but to explore a range of plausible futures. This approach helps prepare for changes that may arise, even if those changes seem unlikely today. Discussions encouraged participants to reflect on their assumptions, uncover blind spots and learn from one another’s perspectives.
The insights and materials generated during the workshop will feed into a forthcoming report. This report will offer new perspectives on long-term migration trends and on how individual and policy decisions interact in shaping mobility.
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This project has received funding under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme, grant agreement N 101094279.
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